This week’s televised LV= Insurance County Championship opener between champions Surrey and Lancashire will feature the two counties most likely to claim the Division One title, according to a pre-season survey of the county captains.
The ECB has asked all 18 first-class county captains to make a series of pre-season predictions to provide fans with an insight into how the game’s on-field decision-makers thought this summer will play out.
The questions put to the captains ranged from the county they thought would win the top-flight title, to which counties would get promoted; the winners of this summer’s men’s and women’s Ashes as well as the players they expected to shine this domestic summer.
And the results have provided interesting reading, most significantly in the race for the Division One title where Surrey and Lancashire could not be split, while an overwhelming majority of the county captains believe that England Men’s red-ball revolution will secure Ashes success this summer.
The majority of captains have also predicted England Women will win back the Ashes in the multi-format series, while Leicestershire’s leg-spinning all-rounder Rehan Ahmed – who became the youngest male player to debut across all three formats for England during the winter – got the most votes as the country’s most exciting young talent just ahead of Jacob Bethell (Warwickshire) and Jamie Smith (Surrey).
Six captains picked Surrey to go back-to-back in the LV= Insurance County Championship this season, with another six predicting that Lancashire can go one better than last year under the leadership of new skipper Keaton Jennings, who got the most captain votes to be the top-flight’s leading run scorer.
With both counties set to face each other in a match to be broadcast on Sky Sports in the opening round at Emirates Old Trafford from Thursday – with ball-by-ball coverage also available on local BBC Radio - the stage is set for an enthralling start to the domestic summer.
The title race is hardly expected to be a two-horse race, however, with three captains predicting that a well-balanced Hampshire outfit will end their 50-year title drought, while two captains believe newly-promoted Nottinghamshire will immediately make their mark.
Captains were unable to pick their county, or a player from their county, for any of the predictions that saw five of Jennings’ fellow leaders pick him to again lead the Division One run-scoring charts.
Jennings led the way with 1,233 runs last term and is expected to be pushed by Surrey’s two England-capped openers, Rory Burns and Dom Sibley, who each got the nod from four captains. Somerset’s captain Tom Abell attracted three captain votes.
Essex’s off-spinner Simon Harmer was the overwhelming favourite to take the most Division One wickets – seven captains making that call – ahead of fellow South African, Kyle Abbott (three), who is again set to partner Mohammad Abbas and Keith Barker at The Ageas Bowl this summer after the trio combined for an astonishing 160 first-class wickets last term.
Yorkshire are the clear favourites for promotion from Division Two, with 13 captains predicting the White Rose will make an immediate return to Division One.
Gloucestershire, who also went down last summer, and Durham were the next-most favoured to go up (six captain’s votes each) while five captains believe the Mickey Arthur revolution at Derbyshire can see them go up for the first time since 2012.
New Yorkshire skipper Shan Masood is expected to be central to his new side’s hopes after the Pakistan batsman played a starring role for Derbyshire last term.
Three captains expect Masood to be Division Two’s leading runscorer, only new team-mate Adam Lyth (four) was ahead of him, with three of the other seven captains in Division Two also predicting that the Pakistan international will have the biggest impact of any overseas signing in the division.
Matthew Potts has been backed to follow up his breakthrough summer by leading the Division Two wicket-takers by three captains, matched only by Ben Coad whose presence will be welcomed by Yorkshire after he, like new-ball partner Matt Fisher (one vote), was restricted by injury last season.
Derbyshire’s Sam Conners, who was on England Lions duty in the winter, was the other Division Two bowler to attract multiple votes.
Leicestershire’s teenage sensation Ahmed will look to build on his memorable winter – having claimed five-for on Test debut against Pakistan – with four captains picking him as the most exciting England-qualified men’s player aged 23 or under.
Surrey wicketkeeper-batter Jamie Smith and Warwickshire left-hander Jacob Bethell both received three nominations. The depth of young talent was underlined by a clutch of rising stars such as James Rew (Somerset), Dan Mousley (Warwickshire), Tom Prest (Hampshire), Jordan Cox (Kent), Tom Price (Gloucestershire), Jack Haynes (Worcestershire) and George Hill (Yorkshire) also named.
England fans will be hoping the captains’ selections prove correct as they predicted an Ashes double for England’s the men’s and women’s teams.
England Men have won 10 of their past 12 Test matches under coach Brendon McCullum and skipper Ben Stokes, to convince 15 of the 18 county captains that they’ll regain the little urn.
Ten county captains have also backed England Women to regain the Ashes for the first time since 2014, with the multi-format series to begin with the first LV= Insurance Test at Trent Bridge on June 22.
The ECB will reveal the results of a pre-season survey of the women’s domestic regional captains ahead of the start of the Rachel Heyhoe Flint Trophy on April 22.
Captains' Survey - questions and results
Which county (not including your county) do you think will win Division 1?*
Lancashire 6, Surrey 6, Hampshire 3, Nottinghamshire 2.
Which two counties (not including your own) do you think will be promoted from Division Two?
Yorkshire 13, Durham 6, Gloucestershire 6, Derbyshire 5, Glamorgan 3, Sussex 1, Worcestershire 1.
Which player (not from your county) will be the leading runscorer in Divsion One, and also in Division Two?
Division 1: Keaton Jennings 5 (Lancashire), Rory Burns 4 (Surrey), Dom Sibley 4 (Surrey), Tom Abell 3 (Somerset), Josh Bohannon 1 (Lancashire), Ben Compton (Kent) 1.
Division 2: Adam Lyth 4 (Yorkshire), Wayne Madsen 3 (Derbyshire), Shan Masood 3 (Yorkshire), Sam Northeast 2 (Glamorgan), David Bedingham 1 (Durham), James Bracey 1 (Gloucestershire), Tom Haines 1 (Sussex), Marcus Harris 1 (Gloucestershire), Cheteshwar Pujara 1 (Sussex), Ajinkya Rahane 1 (Leicestershire).
Which player (not from your county) will be the leading wicket-taker in Division One, and also Division Two?
Division 1: Simon Harmer 7 (Essex), Kyle Abbott 3 (Hampshire), Sam Cook 2 (Essex), Craig Overton 2 (Somerset), Tom Bailey 1 (Lancashire), Liam Norwell 1 (Warwickshire), Tom Roland-Jones 1 (Middlesex), Daniel Worrall 1 (Surrey).
Division 2: Ben Coad 3 (Yorkshire), Matthew Potts 3 (Durham), Sam Conners 2 (Derbyshire), Marchant de Lange 1 (Gloucestershire), Matt Fisher 1 (Yorkshire), Zafar Gohar 1 (Gloucestershire), Joe Leach 1 (Worcestershire), Matt Milnes 1 (Yorkshire), Michael Neser 1 (Glamorgan), Dillon Pennington 1 (Worcestershire), Tom Price 1 (Gloucestershire), Jordan Thompson 1 (Yorkshire), Josh Tongue 1 (Worcestershire).
Which overseas player (not from your county) do you think will have the biggest impact in your LV= Insurance County Championship division?
Division 1: Simon Harmer 3 (Essex), Will Sutherland 2 (Essex – since replaced due to injury), Mohammad Abbas 1 (Hampshire), Sean Abbott 1 (Surrey), Matt Henry 1 (Somerset), Daryl Mitchell 1 (Lancashire), Peter Siddle 1 (Somerset).
Division 2: Shan Masood 3 (Yorkshire), Ajinkya Rahane 1 (Leicestershire), Haider Ali 1 (Derbyshire), Marcus Harris 1 (Gloucestershire), Marnus Labuschagne 1 (Glamorgan), Cheteshwar Pujara 1 (Sussex).
Who is the most exciting young England-qualified player (not from your county – and aged 23 or under) to watch out for in the LV= Insurance County Championship this summer?*
Rehan Ahmed 4 (Leicestershire), Jacob Bethell 3 (Warwickshire), Jamie Smith 3 (Surrey), Jordan Cox 1 (Kent), Jack Haynes 1 (Worcestershire), George Hill 1 (Yorkshire), Dan Mousley 1 (Warwickshire), Tom Prest 1 (Hampshire), Tom Price 1 (Gloucestershire), James Rew 1 (Somerset).
Who do you think will win the Women’s Ashes, and the Men’s Ashes?
Women’s Ashes: England 10, Australia 8
Men’s Ashes: England 15, Drawn 1, Australia 2.
*One captain did not answer each of these two questions (Division One title winner & exciting young England -qualified player)