T20 Blast qualification explained

There has never been a Blast like it!

The last round of group matches are played tonight, with 16 of the 18 counties in action – and 14 of them could still qualify for next week’s quarter finals.

Even at this late stage, only three teams are guaranteed of their places in the last eight: Notts Outlaws, who can already look forward to a home quarter final at Trent Bridge – their seventh in eight years; and Glamorgan, who top the South Group, but still need to take a point from their home game against Middlesex to be sure of staying west of the Severn at the SSE SWALEC next week; and Hampshire, who are one point behind them.

The other teams in the qualifying positions going into the last round are Hampshire, Surrey and Kent Spitfires in the South; and Yorkshire Vikings, Derbyshire Falcons and Birmingham Bears in the North.

The situation is reasonably simple for those three teams in the South. If Hampshire beat Somerset at the Ageas Bowl, they will guarantee themselves a home quarter final. Similarly, the winners of the Kent-Surrey game in Canterbury will secure a place in the last eight – which will be away to the runners-up from the North Group, unless Glamorgan or Hampshire lose, in which case they’ll pinch home advantage.

But the fact that Kent are playing Surrey opens up the chance for Middlesex, Sussex Sharks, Somerset and Essex Eagles to overtake the losers of that game, and snaffle the fourth qualifying spot – which means an away quarter final at Trent Bridge.

And here’s where it starts to get complicated, because if teams are level, they will be ordered by net run rate.

As things stand, Middlesex have the best rate of the quartet on 12 points, at 0.273, followed by Sussex (0.158), Somerset (0.044) and Essex (0.039). But those rates will obviously change tonight. Significantly, all four have better rates than both Surrey and Kent, which is why the losers of that game in Canterbury seem certain to crash out.

Still following?

Right, back to the North. Yorkshire currently sit second, thanks to Adam Lyth’s stunning performance last night. But they could still miss out on the quarters, as no fewer than five teams have a chance to overtake them by winning tonight.

Indeed Derbyshire, Birmingham and Leicestershire only need a point to do so – which could be relevant, with uncertain forecasts for the Midlands.

Perhaps that’s the simplest way to try and explain the situation in the North.

Derbyshire need a point at home to Worcestershire to be virtually sure of reaching the last eight for the first time since 2005.

The same goes for Birmingham in their last game at Lancashire, and Leicestershire against the Outlaws at Trent Bridge.

But note that word “virtually”. Because if any of the aforementioned three teams do only take one point from an abandonment or a tie, then they could be overtaken by the holders, Northamptonshire Steelbacks – although they will need a big win at home to Durham to undo the damage to their run rate inflicted by Lyth.

And obviously run rate will also be a factor in the order in which the teams qualify below Notts.

Yorkshire need two of Derbyshire, Birmingham, Leicestershire and Northants to lose. So it turns out they’re not sitting so pretty after all.

How’s your head?

Probably best to sit back and enjoy whichever game you’re watching tonight – either out at the grounds, or Sky’s live coverage of Sussex-Essex – and see how it all unfolds.

Good luck!